Deepwater’s playbook for delivering growth

Deepwater pro­duction remains a core part of the long-term ener­gy supply mix. While pro­duction from conventional onshore and shallow-water assets is expected to re­main broadly flat under our base case, Welligence estimates that global deep­water oil production will grow from its current level of around 8 MMbbl/d to close to 10 MMbbl/d by the early 2030s.

However, post-2035, deepwater production is set to enter decline unless the hopper of pre-FID deepwa­ter projects is replenished in the medium to long-term. But achieving this medi­um-term deepwater growth trajectory will require a tan­gible step up in investment. With IOCs maintaining a strong focus on capital dis­cipline and applying strict criteria to new investment, only the most resilient and commercially attractive deepwater projects are pro­gressing to FID.

As IOCs look to both existing and frontier op­portunities, new develop­ments are being assessed through a carbon lens as part of project screening, with emission reductions built in, not just bolted on. However, while deepwater production can offer some of the lowest-carbon bar­rels in an operator’s port­folio, commercial viability remains a challenge.

With FPSO topside costs estimated at between $50,000 and $60,000 per tonne, the incremental capital required can be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. One emerging technology that could ul­timately reduce the opera­tional footprint on FPSO topsides involves moving processing equipment sub­sea. This solution could lead to an overall reduc­tion in emissions while also cutting the topside weight requirement for the FPSO. But the potential costs and system reliability will be critical to adoption.

There is, however, a growing comfort with new technology, especially digitisation and artificial intelligence (AI), where adoption of technologies like digital twins can be lev­eraged for real-time mon­itoring to enable early risk identification. With pre­dictive analytics, operators can pre-emptively intervene rather than reactively fix. This new approach reduces process downtime by up to 30 % in some deployments. AI can also streamline and eliminate waste. Logistics, spares management, op­timised maintenance and inspection routines, and reduced specialist inter­ventions can significantly reduce opex. Savings of between 10 and 20 % have been projected. With ear­ly adoption by operators including bp and Shell in GoM, the industry will be watching closely.

As companies push the deepwater envelope and projects become increas­ingly more challenging, designing systems for re­mote operations not only reduces safety risk but can materially reduce the cost of crewed interventions over field life. While high initial costs have mut­ed early implementation, with continual improve­ment in data processing and AI, tangible savings are likely and with that, a new addition to the deep-water playbook.