Whilst traditional oil and gas producers across North Africa have stepped up production and exports via pipelines from Algeria and LNG from Egypt, a new global energy landscape is expected to create sufficient demand to bring previous gas discoveries in Senegal, Mauritania and Morocco into rapid development.
After the first wave of discoveries in the region in the 1990s, Woodside and partners struggled with the Chinguetti oil development offshore Mauritania in the early 2000s, and left the gas-rich Banda, Tiof and Tevet fields stranded.
Between 2015 and 2019, Kosmos Energy took up the baton of high impact exploration, having had major success in West Africa. Drilling large AVO-supported clastic fans and turbidites in the coastal basin offshore Senegal and Mauritania, the US firm notched up multi-TCF discoveries at Bir Allah, Tortue/Ahmeyin and Yakaar. Over 50 TCF of gas has been proven to date.
Majors join in
BP joined Kosmos soon after and the other supermajors TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Shell took up large frontier exploration positions nearby (ExxonMobil have since left).
The most advanced development, expected to start exporting valuable LNG as early as 2023, is the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim field (GTA) on the border of Mauritania and Senegal. This hybrid FLNG facility, with associated onshore facilities, is over 75% complete in Phase 1, and could hit the global market at a good time for gas and LNG prices.
Although both BP and Kosmos are rumoured to be seeking further investors or JV partners, or even an exit, the project is well funded and will be picked up by strategic partners, on a path to producing 2.5 MMtpa LNG by end of 2023. This could double within two years, competing strongly with gas exports from the likes of Egypt and Angola.
BP and Kosmos are now in negotiations to re-start the Production Sharing Contracts with the government over the Bir Allah and Yakaar fields, a further 13 TCF gas feedstock for Phase 2. To the north of Mauritania, US firm New Fortress Energy have signed an MOU for gas monetisation and onshore LNG projects with the government, and have been linked to the development of the Banda Field, a long-overlooked oil and gas asset near Chinguetti.
Transitional gas
Morocco has its own success story, with, Chariot proving up good volumes of gas at Anchois, offshore the northern Atlantic coast. Anchois was first discovered in 2009 by Repsol. Chariot liked the amplitude driven clastic Miocene play, and drilled Anchois 2 in 2021, finding 150 m gas pay compared to 55 m in the first well. The result has been an uplift in resources to around 637 Bcf (with a potential 4.5 TCF on the block) and a fast-track development.
Like GTA, this fast-track approach to gas monetisation reflects a change to new found respect for a once overlooked resource, playing straight into a hungry energy market immediately north in Europe, not to mention Morocco’s own domestic energy needs. Chariot refer to the project as “transitional gas” and are running parallel projects in Mauritania and South Africa for green hydrogen.
Morocco provides huge potential for explorers, with many untested structures and modern seismic data to support exploration across multiple plays. Oil has already been recovered in the Upper Jurassic at Sidi Moussa (now Lagzira) and Cap Juby, and the potential for big gas offshore is a further incentive for exploration investment.
Onshore Morocco, gas has been produced in reasonably small quantities for a while in the coastal Rarb and Essaouira basins by the likes of SDX, while Sound Energy have great potential in their Tendrara Triassic play in the east of the country. Sound have a number of high impact exploration and appraisal targets ready to feed in to their micro-LNG and gas export strategy.
A significant swing
Covering multiple plays, jurisdictions and a large geographical area, the NW Africa margin represents a significant swing in upstream dynamics, promoting gas resources, monetisation, infrastructure and market development compared to a history of stranded and under-valued gas discoveries. European and regional markets look set to benefit, as demand continues to grow, outpaced it seems by supply problems.
The growing hydrogen and “Power to X” industry will also benefit, as gas plays into this new value chain and the companies involved are heavily investing in the transition from producing oil and gas, to delivering energy.
PETER ELLIOTT – NVentures
peter.elliott@nventures.co.uk
