Migris use a stochastic petroleum systems modeling (link) approach, and here is their first prediction from the Norwegian part of the North Sea:
The on-going Equinor-operated exploration well 15/3-12 S targets the Sigrun East-prospect. Just east of the Gudrun field and in the same license, the PL 025 awarded back in 1969 search for Mid-Jurassic Hugin Formation sandstones of the Vestland Group.
According to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, the production at the Gudrun field is declining after five years of production. Therefore, nearby discovery 15/3-4 ‘Sigrun’ is under evaluation as a tie-in candidate to Gudrun, a discovery in the ‘Sigrun East’ prospect will be a welcomed addition to this.
Figure: Map of the area with 15/3-12 S well marked with yellow.
The well spudded in early December last year, and a delineation well is now drilling, the 15/3-12 A. The reservoir depth is likely around four km, and the Hugin sandstones are known to have a moderate reservoir quality in this area.
Figure: Migris simulation map showing the well position of ‘Sigrun East’.
What the Migris simulations tell us, according to Are Tømmerås from Migris, is that there is a Flowrisk value of 77 % in the Mid-Jurassic. According to Migris classification scheme, this means the outcome of the well will fall within Class A, with a 93 % chance of success of proving hydrocarbons if there is a Jurassic trap and also a reservoir.
We are expecting the results of the well shortly.
