But first, what was the talk of the town in 2024? Namibia stole many of the headlines, as it continues to do today and will probably continue to be doing next year. For that reason, our article that discussed the subsurface challenges deep-water Namibia is facing was our best-read piece of the year.
Partly based on the conversations I have had with several people with knowledge on the matter, I want to throw in my two cents’ worth of predictions as to how Namibia may unfold next year. My prediction is that Shell could be relinquishing its deep-water licence. Why am I saying that? First of all, Shell’s own Wael Sawan has been quite open about the subsurface challenges the company faces in the area.
In addition, someone confirmed to me that he would not be surprised to see a major quit Namibia in the near future. Also, Shell has recently committed to deep-water Nigeria and told media that it is contemplating a re-entry into Angola. Is this a strategy to make good for the upcoming loss of the Namibia acreage? To me, it all sounds as if the company is on the build-up to it. And Christmas is usually a good time to announce these things, as the media and its readers are usually a bit more subdued.
Yet, there is a lot of activity in Namibian waters at the moment, as nicely summarized this week by a post from Enverus’ Jimmy Boulter. That might be a reason for Shell to hold on, wanting to evaluate the findings of the current drilling activity. One more crystal ball please!
Testing the limits of petroleum plays
When it comes to the most interesting subsurface news throughout the year, I think China is stealing the show. Announcements about oil and gas finds in fractured basement, ultra-deep drilling in the Tarim Basin, and recently the news about an ultra-shallow gas find all suggest that China is exploring what most petroleum geoscientists would regard as the margins of conventional petroleum systems.
How much of this will come to fruition, and whether China will really be able to dramatically increase domestic production on the back of all this remains to be seen, as press releases seem to be linked to a political agenda rather than the actual timing of a discovery. It is certainly my aim to look into China a bit more next year.
Geology-independence
We have covered the geothermal sector a fair bit this year. What stands out is that there is no lack of social media coverage by companies involved in deep geothermal. Particularly good at that are US-based start-ups keen to raise a profile – and I guess to raise money – to enable testing new technology, be it to drill deeper or to drill faster. Possibly both.
As a relative outsider, I see this as a landscape of competing outfits all trying to prove that their solution to a more sustainable energy future is the best. That is fine, and let’s hope the breakthrough comes soon, but from what I have seen there is yet a technology that has really proven its future whilst leaving all the “competitors” behind.
At the same time, I still feel that the shallow geothermal sector does not get the attention it deserves. This sector is realizing project after project, whilst innovation is surely not at a standstill either. We covered developments in Sweden, Australia and Canada, and also looked at the Munich area and spoke to people from CoilRig to hear about their disruptive technology.
As someone I spoke to said: “Shallow geothermal could be an actual threat to deep geothermal, because houses with a shallow loop will not anymore require being connected to a geothermal district heating network.” And whilst deep geothermal keeps on being tested and explored in many places, the shallow sector could be the winner in the end, also because it is much more independent of geology.
And finally, a word on carbon storage
Maybe we also need geology-independent CO2 storage. It would be an attractive solution – no more discussion about seals, no more pressure issues, no more well integrity headaches. Just inject it, and hope for the best. Would that be the way for 2025 to make a difference? That’s certainly what the protesters at this week’s CCS Conference in London were demanding.
The GEO EXPRO Team wishes our readers a Merry Christmas, a Happy New Year, and we will be back in 2025.
